Overview
Performance Analysis shows how close the ARIS forecast came to what actually happened, and how often your team overrode ARIS. Use it to decide how far you can trust the forecast at each lead time.
You find it in ARIS > Performance Analysis. The dropdown has three pages:
Page | Question it answers | View |
Forecast Accuracy Overview | How accurate was ARIS on average, 30, 60 and 90 days out? | KPI cards with bar charts + summary table |
Forecast Analysis | What did ARIS forecast for each day and month, compared with the actuals? | Day-by-day table, grouped by month |
Override Analysis | On which days was the forecast on or off target, and were those days overridden? | Calendar heat map with a detail popup per day |
All three pages cover the same three KPIs: occupancy (room nights / occupancy %), ADR and room revenue. Which pages you see depends on your user rights and your contract.
Key concepts
Lead time. ARIS saves its forecast every day. "Forecast 30 days out" is the forecast ARIS made 30 days before the stay date. Example: for Mo 23.03., the 30-day forecast is the one made on Sa 21.02.. The pages compare three lead times: 30, 60 and 90 days out. Each stay date is evaluated on its own.
Actual / on the books. For past dates this is the final result from your PMS. For dates still in the future it is what is on the books today, so the comparison can still change. Such days count as open (for example "1 open" at the top of a page). The Forecast Accuracy Overview counts open days, so its averages can still move. The Forecast Analysis table leaves them off the color scale.
Accuracy is the deviation of the forecast from the actual, per KPI.
Occupancy is measured in percentage points, ADR and revenue in percent. A positive value means ARIS forecast too high ("above actual"); a negative value means too low ("below actual"). Closer to 0 is better.
Tolerance. A deviation within ±10 pp (occupancy) or ±10 % (ADR, revenue) counts as on target and is shown green. A larger deviation is shown red. The Forecast Analysis table uses its own adjustable bounds (see that section).
Missing forecasts. If no forecast was saved exactly 30, 60 or 90 days before a date, ARIS uses the forecast that would have been shown on that day: the closest available forecast made on that day or earlier. A value stays empty only if no forecast exists from that day or before.
Forecast Accuracy Overview
This page gives you the average forecast accuracy of ARIS for the selected period, per KPI and lead time. Pick any period with actuals in the date picker.
Open days. The orange label in the top right corner (for example "1 open") counts the days in the period that have not closed yet. They are included in the accuracy, but their actual is the current pickup rather than the final result, so the figures can still change. Hover over the label for this explanation in the app.
KPI cards. There is one card each for occupancy %, ADR and room revenue. Each card shows:
The headline value: the accuracy 30 days out, with an arrow for "above actual" or "below actual". Example: "5.8 % above actual" means ARIS forecast the ADR 5.8 % too high.
A trend note in the top right corner comparing 30 days out with 90 days out. Green "5.6 pp closer than 90 days out" means the forecast improved as the date came closer. Red "0.5 pp further off than 90 days out" means it got worse.
A gauge under the value. The light-green band is the tolerance, the marker is the deviation.
A bar chart with one bar per lead time (30d, 60d, 90d). The center line is the actual, the green band the ±10 tolerance. Bars inside the band are green, bars outside are red.
Forecast accuracy by lead time. The table under the cards lists the same values for all three KPIs, one row per lead time, so you can compare them at a glance. Hover over the clock icon next to a lead time to see how many days used an earlier forecast, for example "38 days were answered by the latest snapshot before the requested day, because ARIS did not run on them."
How to read it. Accuracy usually improves as the stay date gets closer, because more bookings are on the books. A 90-day value outside the tolerance is common; a 30-day value outside the tolerance is worth a closer look in the Forecast Analysis or Override Analysis.
Forecast Analysis
This page puts the actuals and the ARIS forecasts made 30, 60 and 90 days out side by side, day by day. Use it to see exactly which days or months ARIS over- or underestimated. Select the period with the date picker in the top right (for example "Past year"); future periods work too.
Open days. The orange label next to the page title (for example "1 open") counts the days in the period that have not closed yet. For those days the Actual / On the books column shows the current pickup, not the final result. They are not colored, because their accuracy can still move. Hover over the label for this explanation in the app.
Columns. For each of the four column groups (Actual / On the books, Forecast 30 days out, Forecast 60 days out, Forecast 90 days out) you see room nights, ADR and room revenue.
Months and days. Days are grouped by month. The month row shows the month total and stays visible at the top while you scroll. If the period covers only part of a month, the total covers only those days (for example "Oct 2025 · 2 of 31 days"). Click the arrow next to a month to collapse or expand it; the two arrows in the top left corner collapse or expand all months at once. Weekends, as defined in your hotel settings, are shaded gray. The row under your mouse is highlighted.
Percent badges. In the month rows, each forecast value has a badge with forecast Ă· actual. Example: 340 forecast room nights against 241 actual = 141 %. Values above 100 % mean ARIS forecast too high.
Cell colors. Room night and revenue cells are colored by how far the forecast is from the actual: green when the forecast is on target, amber when it is part-way off, and red at or beyond a bound. By default the bounds are 80 % and 120 % of the actual. ADR cells are not colored: ADR is revenue divided by room nights, so if both are missed in the same direction ADR would look perfect. Cells stay empty and white only when no forecast exists from that day or before.
Download. Use the download icon in the top right corner of the table to download it as an Excel file (.xlsx).
Settings. The âź menu in the top right corner opens the page settings:
Accuracy heatmap: turn the cell colors on or off.
Red at or below / Red at or above: set the bounds for red, as a percentage of the actual (default 80 % and 120 %). The color bar above the fields previews the scale.
Save keeps your settings; Add to dashboard adds the table to a dashboard.
History icon. A small history icon next to a forecast value means ARIS did not run on the exact lead-time date, so the value comes from an earlier forecast. Hover over the value to see the details, for example: "147% of the actual · forecast from 02.10.2025, 31 days out - ARIS did not run on 03.10.2025".
Override Analysis
This page shows the forecast accuracy of every day in a calendar heat map and marks the days on which a user overrode ARIS. Use it to see whether overrides went together with better or worse forecasts.
Filters. At the top of the page you choose:
KPI: Occupancy Percentage, ADR or Room revenue
Lead time: Forecast 30, 60 or 90 days out
Period: with the date picker in the top right (for example "Past year")
Calendar. Each column is a week (Monday to Sunday), each tile a day.
Marker | Meaning |
Green tile | On target: forecast close to the actual |
Red tile | Off target: forecast at or beyond a red bound |
Gray tile | No data for that day |
Dashed outline | Still open: the date has no final actuals yet |
Blue shield icon | Overridden: a user changed the ARIS result for that day |
The calendar uses the same color scale as the Forecast Analysis table. The red bounds you set in its settings (âź menu, default 80 % and 120 % of the actual) also apply here; paler tiles are part-way off.
Day details. Hover over a tile to see:
The date, KPI and lead time
Forecast and actual (for example 161 RN forecast against 156 RN actual)
The ratio with a note, for example "103 %: Forecast 3 % above the actual"
When the forecast was made, for example "Sa 21.02.2026, 30 days before"
The ratio at all three lead times (30d, 60d, 90d), colored by on or off target
The overrides on that day: type (for example Daily), who made it, when, and the change (for example Relative +10,00 âŹ)
Click a tile to open the Historical Analysis for that day.
FAQ
Why is a cell or tile empty or gray? ARIS has no forecast from that lead time or earlier, for example because ARIS was activated less than 90 days before the date. Empty cells are never counted as off target.
Why do the numbers for future dates change? For future dates the actual is what is on the books today. The comparison is final only once the date has passed.
Why is occupancy in pp but ADR and revenue in %? Occupancy is already a percentage, so its deviation is the difference in percentage points. ADR and revenue are amounts, so their deviation is relative to the actual.
I can't see Performance Analysis or one of its pages. The pages are shown depending on your user rights and your contract. Ask your account admin or Hotellistat support.
Does an override make the forecast worse? Not necessarily. Compare the shield days with the tile colors in the Override Analysis and with the 30-day values in the Forecast Accuracy Overview to judge this for your hotel.